Friday, February 17, 2017

Telling year ahead as Center City housing market expects excess supply, moderating rents



This year will be a telling one for Center City’s housing market as 3,127 apartment units will be completed and put to a test the demand or lack of it for living in Philadelphia.

There are 4,167 apartments under construction in the city and the units that will be finished and available for rent this year represents a 71 percent increase over the total number that were completed last year, according to Center City District’s newest housing report.

Can the city's housing market survive if millennials head to the suburbs?


In 2016, 2,506 residential units, of which 1,833 were apartments and the remainder condominiums and townhouses, were put on the market and set a new record for the number of housing units delivered in a single year. The highest had been set in 2013 when 2,168 units were completed.

Since 2000, when CCD began tracking new housing that was added to the market, 20,705 new units have been constructed. They have mostly been absorbed by a 19 percent rise in the population of greater Center City to 190,000, the report said.

The report, as have other observers of Center City’s real estate market, questions whether Philadelphia will be able to rent out the new apartments or sell the new condos that are in the works or will it face a glut.

At this point, a definitive answer remains elusive though the report believes some softness is expected. However, if two primary issues – creating more jobs and improving public education – are addressed, that softness could be a temporary situation rather than worsen over time.

Center City has a lot going for it that helps promote a healthy housing market by attracting new residents who want to live in Philadelphia. It has a variety of housing that appeals to people at different stages of their lives, strengthening its ability to retain residents long-term as their needs change, the report said. It is also walkable, with a range of restaurants, arts and cultural institutions and other amenities people seek out in an urban environment. The city is also benefitting from a shift in a desire to rent rather than own a home.

While those factors help attract and retain new residents to fill apartments, they won't sustain the housing market. The city's heavy millennial population is a good thing until it's not. Millennials, which account for 20 percent of the region’s population, represent 40 percent of Center City’s population, according to CCD.

“...In order to sustain growth, Philadelphia needs first to retain millennials as they age and form families and, second, attract a steady stream of replacements to fill the apartments of those who choose to become homeowners,” the report said.

That might become difficult. A poll on Philadelphia conducted by Pew in 2014 found half of millennials did not expect to be living in Philadelphia in five or 10 years with jobs and schools for children as the top reasons for leaving. To that end, addressing how Philadelphia can grow jobs and improve its public education system and financial support for it are key to Philadelphia's future housing market.

“Center City enjoys significant competitive advantages that align well with changing national lifestyle and employment preferences,” the report said. “But Philadelphia’s slow job growth and the uncertainties surrounding public school funding tend to limit our ability to maximize these competitive strengths."

Editor's Note: An earlier version of this story misstated the population growth of Greater Center City and has been corrected to indicate that it has grown since 2000 by 19 percent to 190,000 people.

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