EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS -- 2014-24: Construction is projected to add 790,400 jobs by 2024.
Healthcare occupations and industries are expected to
have the fastest employment growth and to add the most jobs between 2014 and
2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. With the increase in
the proportion of the population in older age groups, more people in the labor
force will be entering prime retirement age. As a result, the labor force
participation rate is projected to decrease and labor force growth to slow.
This slowdown of labor force growth is expected, in turn, to lead to Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.2 percent annually over the decade. This
economic growth is projected to generate 9.8 million new jobs--a 6.5-percent
increase between 2014 and 2024.
The projections are predicated on assumptions including a
5.2 percent unemployment rate in 2024 and labor productivity growth of 1.8
percent annually over the projected period. Highlights of the BLS projections
for the labor force and macroeconomy, industry employment, and occupational
employment are included below.
Labor Force and
the Macroeconomy
--The civilian
labor force is projected to reach 163.8 million in 2024, growing at an annual
rate of 0.5 percent. (See table 1.)
--The labor
force continues to age. The median age of the labor force was 37.7 in 1994,
40.3 in 2004, 41.9 in 2014, and is projected to be 42.4 in 2024. At the same
time, the overall labor force participation rate is projected to decrease from
62.9 percent in 2014 to 60.9 percent in 2024.
--The labor
force participation rate for youth (ages 16 to 24) is projected to decrease
from 55.0 percent in 2014 to 49.7 percent in 2024. The youth age group is
projected to make up 11.3 percent of the civilian labor force in 2024 as
compared with 13.7 percent in 2014. In contrast, the labor force participation
rate for the 65-and-older age group is projected to increase from 18.6 percent
in 2014 to 21.7 percent in 2024. This older age group is projected to represent
8.2 percent of the civilian labor force in 2024 ascompared with 5.4 percent in
2014.
--Labor force
diversity is projected to increase, with white non-Hispanics making up 59.6
percent of the civilian labor force in 2024, compared with 64.6 percent in
2014.
--Real GDP (2009
chained dollars) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, from
$16.1 trillion in 2014 to $19.9 trillion in 2024.
--Within GDP,
medical services will continue to grow as a share of nominal personal
consumption expenditures. This category is projected to account for 18.0
percent of consumption in 2024--higher than its 16.7-percent share in 2014 and 15.0-percent share in 2004.
Industry
Employment
--Service-providing sectors are projected to capture 94.6 percent of all
the jobs added between 2014 and 2024. Of these 9.3 million new service sector jobs, 3.8 million will be added to the
healthcare and social assistance major sector.
--The healthcare
and social assistance major sector is expected to become the largest employing
major sector during the projections decade, overtaking the state and local
government major sector and the professional and business services major
sector. Healthcare and social assistance is projected to increase its
employment share from 12.0 percent in 2014 to 13.6 percent in 2024.
--Construction is projected to add 790,400
jobs by 2024. Even with these additional jobs, employment in the construction
major sector is not projected to return to the 2006 peak.
--Manufacturing
employment, between 2014 and 2024, is projected to decline at a 0.7 percent
rate annually, a more moderate decline than the 1.6 percent rate experienced in
the prior decade.
Occupational
Employment
--Healthcare
support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are
projected to be the two fastest growing occupational groups during the 2014 to
2024 projections decade. These groups are projected to contribute the most new
jobs, with a combined increase of
2.3 million in
employment, representing about 1 in 4 new jobs.
--Of the 819
detailed occupations, employment in 602 occupations is projected to grow, while
employment in 217 occupations is projected to decline.
--Two major
groups are projected to have declining employment. Together, production occupations
and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected to shed 339,300
jobs during the projections decade.
--For 11 of the
15 fastest growing occupations, some level of postsecondary education is
typically required for entry. (See table 5.)
Source: BLS
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