Thursday, February 5, 2015

The MGM effect: Massive National Harbor project may drive up contracting costs for all



The $1.2 billion MGM National Harbor resort will create thousands of jobs and drive work to hundreds of small and local businesses during the roughly two years it is under construction. But the MGM effect, according to one leading development executive, isn't all boon. It may be a drain, too, on the pockets of other developers.


"In fact in some of the cities, some of the larger projects like the potential casino that's going to be built in Everett [Massachusetts] and the current casino that's being constructed at National Harbor are major users of both materials and labor," Douglas Linde, president of Boston Properties Inc., told investors during his company's Jan. 30 earnings call. "And given that the revenue models of those types of projects are such that time is critically important, they are prepared to pay whatever it takes to get resources, and that impacts the overall availability from a construction perspective in those markets as well. So we're seeing it and we don't expect for it to abate any time soon."

Oil prices may be down to their lowest level in years, Linde said, but "it's not being reflected in reduction in construction costs in our markets." Mega projects like MGM, combined with a post-recession reduction in the number of qualified contractors and a healthy volume of construction activity in major markets, is driving up costs.

Boston Properties, Linde said, is budgeting for annual construction cost increases of up to 4.5 percent, "and we really don't expect to see much in the way of a change in that."

Linde's comments, all of them, jive with what the Association of General Contractors of America is hearing from its members, said Brian Turmail, AGC spokesman. While construction material costs (save for gypsum board) have generally remained flat, Turmail said, the industry has seen a decrease in the number of subcontractors and qualified construction workers, and most general contractors "are reporting they've having to pay more and pay more benefits to retain and recruit qualified workers."

"Certainly we've seen a decrease in the number of contractors, especially subcontractors, because the contractor downturn started earlier and ended later," he said. "A lot of firms reduced staff and a lot of firms closed their doors."

MGM executives declined comment.

Their project, led by McKissack & McKissack and Whiting-Turner Contracting Co., is quickly emerging from a 1,550-foot-long, graded stretch of dirt between National Harbor and the Tanger Outlets in Oxon Hill. It is expected to open in the second half of 2016, with a 23-story, 308-room hotel tower, a 4,646-space parking garage, 26,582-square-foot spa and salon, 12 food and beverage outlets, 27,431 square feet of conference space, a 3,000-seat theater, and, of course, a casino with 3,303 video lottery terminals and 160 table games.

Below is Linde's full response to the question on cost inflation, posed by Brad Burke of Goldman Sachs.

As much deflation as there is in the overall economy right now in terms of the impact of oil prices and the impact of other commodities, it's not being reflected in reductions in construction costs in our markets. And that's largely due to two things.

The first is that the overall amount of activity in our markets on a relative basis is probably higher today that's it's been at any time over the past five or six years, so there is more institutional, residential, as well as commercial development going on in New York City, in Washington, D.C, in Boston and in San Francisco than there has been in quite some time.

The other thing that has occurred is that during the downturn there were a number of contractors who basically gave up and either went out of business because they decided it wasn't profitable, or they were forced out of business because they couldn't make ends meet. So the number of quality contractors that are around to do the kind of work that we need to have done has been reduced.

And so there has been somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.5 to 4.5 percent annualized increases in construction budgeting over the past year or so, and that is what we are using as we plan our projects on a going forward and that's all baked into our numbers. And we really don't expect to see much in the way of a change in that.

In fact in some of the cities, some of the larger projects like the potential casino that's going to be built in Everett and the current casino that's being constructed at National Harbor are major users of both materials and labor and given that the revenue models of those types of projects are such that time is critically important, they are prepared pay whatever takes to get resources and that impacts the overall availability from a construction perspective in those markets as well. So we're seeing it and we don't expect for it to abate any time soon.

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