Adapted from, “Should you put off what you could
negotiate today?” first published in the Negotiation newsletter, June 2012.
To reach agreement, negotiators sometimes postpone the
resolution of certain issues until a later date. We look at how this practice
plays out in the real world.
Remember the federal debt ceiling talks? In mid-2011, congressional
Republicans insisted on significant spending reductions from their Democratic
counterparts in exchange for voting to raise the nation’s debt limit by an
August 2 deadline.
Following a flurry of rejected proposals, the White House
and congressional leaders finally reached a bipartisan agreement, which had an
interesting two-stage structure. In addition to immediately making 10-year
spending cuts, the parties established a bipartisan “supercommittee” charged
with recommending at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction.
An impasse by the supercommittee would trigger a “nuclear
option”—spending cuts disliked by each side.
In November, after months of talks, the supercommittee
threw up its hands; the across-the-board defense and domestic spending cuts are
scheduled to take effect in January 2013. The impasse was chalked up to a host
of factors, including press leaks, uncooperative negotiators on both sides, and
the fact that each side was able to envision a way around the so-called nuclear
option.
Multistage agreements are often promoted as an innovative
way to move stalled talks forward. Yet, as this example demonstrates,
rescheduling a dreaded negotiation can end up as nothing more than an artful
form of procrastination. Let’s look at when it’s smart to postpone agreement on
certain issues and when it’s not.
When kicking the can helps…
“Kicking the can down the road” can be an effective way
to head off an impasse, writes professor Jeswald Salacuse of the Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the Winter 2012 edition of
Tufts Magazine.
Suppose you’re trying to buy out your business partner
before the end of the tax year. You have come to agreement on many issues, but
you have differing opinions of the value of a vacant lot you purchased together
before the collapse of the real-estate market. In this case, you might write up
a contract that covers your other assets and schedules a separate negotiation
about the vacant lot for a specific later date, says Salacuse.
When are such delays effective? First, if you and your
counterpart are under the gun to close a deal, postponing agreement on a thorny
issue gives you a chance to clear your heads. By allowing yourselves ample time
to focus closely on the last item on the table, you may be able to come up with
more innovative solutions than you would under time pressure. Similarly, if
talks have become rancorous, a break may allow tempers to cool and prompt more
rational and cooperative decisions.
A delay can also reduce the impact of an onerous decision
by giving parties time to find a more acceptable alternative. By postponing the
deficit-reduction question, Republicans and Democrats bought some much-needed
time to envision promising alternatives to agreement. In the end, each side was
able to imagine a scenario, hinging on the November 2012 election results, that
would buffer the nation from the hardship of $1.2 trillion in automatic
spending cuts. (Whether either side’s scenario comes to pass remains to be
seen.)
Postponement can be especially helpful when parties are
negotiating burdens, such as hazardous-waste cleanup, budget cuts, or deficit
reduction. Because we worry more about present concerns than future ones,
delaying one particularly weighty decision may take some pressure off a
negotiation that has become contentious and increase cooperation.
…and when it can hurt
When you’re locked in an impasse, the temptation to put
off a difficult issue until tomorrow (or next year) can be great. But it’s
important to consider whether postponement could truly be beneficial or if
you’re simply succumbing to the very human tendency to procrastinate on
difficult decisions.
A couple of guidelines can help you decide how to
proceed. First, consider whether you have truly exhausted all options for
resolving your disagreement on the issue at stake. Have you tried structuring a
contingent contract—that is, an agreement that allows each side to bet on its
different predictions? If one company in a joint venture has more optimistic
sales predictions than the other, both sides might agree to reward that party
in the event of a success and, conversely, compensate the more pessimistic
party if sales are disappointing.
Such arrangements reduce the risk of coming to agreement
on an issue where opinions differ.
Second, if postponing a decision still seems like the
best option, keep in mind that it’s better to put off marginal issues rather
than essential ones, according to Salacuse.
To take one cautionary example, the 1993 Oslo Accords
between Israel and Palestine recognized the Palestinian right to
self-government but left numerous critical issues undecided, including
boundaries, the status of Jerusalem, and the right of Palestinians to return to
their previous homes.
The two sides are still fighting over these questions
almost 20 years later. If passions surrounding an issue seem likely to grow
rather than subside with time, it may be better to resolve the debate sooner
rather than later.
As the Oslo Accords also show, it can be a mistake to
postpone too many decisions. Seasoned negotiators understand that the presence
of multiple issues allows for the discovery of mutually beneficial tradeoffs.
When you take issues off the table—even if you’ve
promised to tackle them later—you could set yourself up for less creative deals
than you would reach otherwise.
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